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Why is the UK economy performing worse than other countries during the coronavirus pandemic?
Is it just a question of measurement?
tl:dr No
1/ https://www.ft.com/content/c5d72dea-50bc-4f1f-98d3-bc758aafa905?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a via @financialtimes
Is it just a question of measurement?
tl:dr No
1/ https://www.ft.com/content/c5d72dea-50bc-4f1f-98d3-bc758aafa905?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a via @financialtimes
UK GDP is still 9.7 per cent below pre-pandimc level - much worse than most other countries
BUT
And one for @Gilesyb, Nominal GDP is in line with other countries
THIS suggests something is up with the GDP deflator
2/
BUT
And one for @Gilesyb, Nominal GDP is in line with other countries
THIS suggests something is up with the GDP deflator
2/
There is something up with the public sector element of the deflator.
UK health deflator is running at 91%
Yes 91%
Because high Covid spending is paired with low levels of operations and GP visists
3/
UK health deflator is running at 91%
Yes 91%
Because high Covid spending is paired with low levels of operations and GP visists
3/
But that's not the only thing going on...
UK household consumption - nominal and real - is much worse than other countries...
...paired with poor performing imports, and strong retail sales suggests foreign travel is extremely low
4/
UK household consumption - nominal and real - is much worse than other countries...
...paired with poor performing imports, and strong retail sales suggests foreign travel is extremely low
4/
riains ghte question - what is internationally strong if household spending is weak and NGDP is in line?
It's government consumption....UK spending has risen in nominal terms in a way not seen in other countries...
without better coronavirus performance
5/
It's government consumption....UK spending has risen in nominal terms in a way not seen in other countries...
without better coronavirus performance
5/
The scale of this is extraordinary - 15% increase in government consumption in the UK but hardly any elsewhere...
For those worried that @hmtreasury has lost control of public spending, this will provide some additional ammunition
ENDS
For those worried that @hmtreasury has lost control of public spending, this will provide some additional ammunition
ENDS
In fifth tweet - supposed to say "raising the question" - thanks for all those praising my typing skylls
